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It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.