Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
